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Please Pass the Astragalus
In 1798, the British economist Thomas Malthus argued that as the world’s population increased exponentially (and agricultural production scrambled to keep up), we would eventually find ourselves starving, miserable, and warring over our scarce resources. This hypothetical state of affairs has since come to be known as a “Malthusian catastrophe,” and it’s an idea Ernesto Robles plays with in his debut novel.
The scientific thriller The Malthusian Catastrophe revolves around an herbal supplement that appears to slow, or even stop, aging. When Michael Jeffs, a recent business-school grad, takes a job as head of distribution for Aseso Nutraceuticals, all he knows about the company is that their main product—an herbal supplement called Sinsen—is flying off the shelves. While Aseso does no marketing and makes no claims about the efficacy of Sinsen, the company is doing a brisk business, largely due to a body of supplement users who believe it to be the fountain of youth in pill form. Does Sinsen really stop the aging process? Is it all a scam? Or is there something darker going on?
Robles’ debut has a decent plot, and his story raises a number of interesting ethical questions. If a pill were available that would keep you looking and feeling young indefinitely, would you take it? What if your spouse or partner took it and you didn’t? How would it impact society to be suddenly filled with a thriving population of seventy-year-olds who look thirty? And how would economic forces impact the production and availability of an immortality supplement?
Unfortunately, the impact The Malthusian Catastrophe might otherwise make is marred by flat characters and wooden writing. Though there are few hard and fast rules for writing, one basic principle is to “show, not tell;” Robles often shows and tells. ("Joon was impressed with what Aseso had achieved. ‘Man, I can’t believe what you guys have accomplished...’") Much of the dialogue has a B-movie feel: “It is not very effective to have the best intentions but with no way to act on them. It is too dangerous now to share the technology with others. We have to control the technology ourselves.”
But what about the science in the book? Let’s take the novel’s main plot points, and see how they stack up against real-world research.
Plot point: Sinsen’s creators perform research trials overseas to avoid U.S. government oversight.
Quote: “They could perform human trials in Laos...Relatively small amounts of capital would be necessary to conduct experiments that could prove the efficacy of David’s drug, and there would be next to no government intervention.”
Credibility Rating: High. More and more biotech companies are avoiding the astronomical costs of FDA approval by performing their clinical trials overseas. It makes sense that Aseso would use this same approach, especially if they were deliberately trying to stay under the radar.
Plot point: The secret of eternal youth lies in preventing the shortening of telomeres, DNA sequences at the ends of chromosomes.
Quote: “David’s starting point was the theory that telomeres, the protective ends of chromosomes, became shorter during cellular replication, and that the shortening of telomeres led to the loss of genetic information and eventually to cellular senescence.”
Credibility rating: Fairly high. Telomeres do indeed protect the ends of chromosomes from molecular attack. They also shorten during every cell division, so as humans age, our telomeres get shorter. And rebuilding telomeres has been shown to decrease genetic damage in people with Werners Syndrome, a disease that causes premature aging.
Plot point: Messing around with telomeres has unforeseen consequences in the body.
Quote:All quotes about this plot point would serve as major spoilers, so I’m omitting one here.
Credibility rating: High. Telomeres are the genetic equivalent of those plastic tips on shoelaces—they protect the ends of chromosomes. Making changes to the structure and function of the body’s telomeres could certainly open the door to disastrous genetic consequences.
Plot point: Sinsen, the anti-aging supplement, is made from astragalus root.
Quote: “David discovered that a molecule found in the root of the Astragalus plant, used in traditional Chinese medicine, was a natural telomerase activator.”
Credibility rating: Medium-low. The NIH’s National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine confirms that astragalus is used in Chinese medicine as an immune booster, but says that clinical efficacy trials have been too small and preliminary to be conclusive. This is an active area of research, however. From the same website: “NCCAM-funded investigators are studying the effects of astragalus on the body, particularly on the immune system.”
In a related side-note, the FDA recently slapped the wrist of integrative-medicine guru Dr. Andrew Weil for claiming that an astragalus-root combo supplement for sale on his site had flu-preventive qualities.
And this gorgeous infographic, built from the results of over 1,500 studies, places astragalus well below the “worth-it line” among health supplements. Perhaps fish oil would have been a more realistic main ingredient for Sinsen?
Plot point: Aseso can get away with marketing Sinsen without much regulation because it is considered a dietary supplement, not a drug.
Quote: “Unlike drugs, which had to go through multiple testing phases, nutritional supplements could be marketed and sold freely in the United States.”
Credibility: High. The Food and Drug Administration only steps in to regulate dietary supplements if there are reports of health issues or false claims made by their distributors.
Also, food imported into the USA from overseas (such as the astragalus root used to produce Sinsen in the novel) is, again, not regulated by the FDA; the onus for quality and safety control falls entirely on the overseas grower and distributor.
Overall, Robles has done a credible job vetting the science he plays with in his book. Too bad his fiction isn’t much to write home about.
To find out more about Robles and his book, visit his website, or listen to a radio interview the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies conducted with the author.
